Consultation on Lead Scenarios for the Electricity Grid Development Plans 2014

On 5 April 2012, the Federal Network Agency has published the draft scenario framework for the National Electricity Grid Development Plan (NEP 2014) and the Offshore Grid Development Plan (O-NEP 2014). It also started the consultation process in accordance with Section 12a (2) German Energy Act which will end on 17 May 2013, including a public workshop on 3 May 2012.

The draft scenario framework was developed by the four German transmission operators (TSOs) and proposed to the Federal Network Agency on 28 March 2013. It provides three alternatives for the possible development of installed generation from renewable, fossil and nuclear facilities and of the electricity consumption in Germany. Its also covers regional allocation until the year 2024, and for the median scenario until 2034. It finally includes an updated list of 751 power generation facilities under the NEP 2014 and their expected available generation capacity for the years 2024 and 2034.

Compared to the last two scenario frameworks, the data basis has been improved again. In particular the regional allocation of generation from renewables is no longer based only on data provided by the Federal States – which have been subject to discussion as they seemed to reflect political wishful thinking rather than possible results – but has been refined based on a prognosis prepared by independent experts. The scenario framework also takes into account the European developments regarding available generation capacity, interconnection and expected bottlenecks, including market simulations in that regard.

The scenario framework, after its approval, shall form the basis for the development of the NEPs 2014 which define the measures and steps for an optimisation, enhancement and expansion of the on- and offshore grids, which in the opinion of the TSOs are needed to ensure a safe and reliable operation of the grids over the next ten years, i.e. until 2024.

The NEPs 2013, which are based on the scenario framework developed and approved on 30 November 2012, currently still are in the consultation process until 14 April 2013. They will remain to be based on the approved scenario framework, disregarding the fact that the proposed draft 2014 scenario framework has made significant adjustments to former expectations:

The updated median scenario expects 2 % higher onshore wind capacity and 9 % lower offshore wind as well as 5 % lower photovoltaic generation. Also installed capacity of conventional power plants is expected to decrease by about 7 % compared to last year’s expectations.

Source: Federal Network Agency, press release of 5 April 2013 and website Netzentwicklungsplan Strom

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