BNetzA: Scenario Framework Approved for National Electricity and Offshore Grid Development Plans 2014

The Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) approved the scenario framework for the National Electricity Grid Development Plan (NEP 2014) and the Offshore Grid Development Plan (O-NEP 2014) submitted by the four German transmission system operators in spring.

The scenario framework describes the expected development of the electricity generation capacity and the electricity consumption over the next ten respectively twenty years (each year a new scenario framework has to be handed over to BNetzA, cf. Section 12 a German Energy Act), using three different scenarios. Scenario A assumes a moderate, the so-called Lead Scenario B a median and Scenario C a strong growth of renewable power plants. Scenario C is based on information provided by the sixteen federal German states.

BNetzA approved the following Scenario Framework:

Installed Generation Capacity [GW]
Energy Type

Reference

2012

Scenario A2024 Scenario B2024 Scenario B2034

Scenario C

2024

Nuclear

12.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Lignite

21.2

16.0

15.4

11.3

15.4

Hard Coal

25.4

27.2

25.8

18.4

25.8

Natural Gas

27.0

23.3

28.2

37.5

28.2

Oil

4.0

1.8

1.8

1.1

1.8

Pumped Storage

6.4

10.0

10.0

10.7

10.0

Other conventional Generations

 4.1

 3.7  3.7  2.7

 3.7

Total conventional Generation

 100.2

 82.0  84.9  81.7

 84.9

Wind onshore

31.0

49.0

55.0

72.0

87.4

Wind offshore

0.3

11.5

12.7

25.3

16.1

Photovoltaic

33.1 54.8

56.0

59.5

58.6

Biomass

5.7

8.3

8.7

9.2

7.8

Hydro

4.4

4.5

4.7

5.0

4.2

Other renewable generation

 0.8

 0.9  1.5  2.3

 1.3

Total renewable generation

 75.3

 129.0  138.6  173.3

 175.4

Total generation

175.5

 211.0  223.5  255.0

 260.3

Net Electricity Demand [TWh]

Net electricity demand

540.3

535.4 535.4 535.4

535.4

Annual Peak Load [GW]

Annual peak load

86.9

84.0

84.0

84.0

84.0

The dynamic growth of onshore wind power plants led to an increase to 55 GW in the forecast of wind power capacity  by 2024 in Lead Scenario B, Jochen Homann, president of BNetzA pointed out. In contrast the slower growth of PV plants observed since the beginning of the year led to a reduction of expected capacity for 2024 to 56 GW. The assumption for offshore capacity by 2024 was also moderately reduced to 12.7 GW in the Lead Scenario, taking into account construction delays, but without questioning the (government’s) expansion target (20 to 25 MW by 2030), Mr. Homann added.

Based on the approved scenario framework, the TSOs now have to draw up the NEPs 2014, which define the measures and steps for an optimisation, enhancement and expansion of the on- and offshore grids, which in the opinion of the TSOs are needed to ensure a safe and reliable operation of the grids over the next ten years, i.e. until 2024. They have to be submitted to BNetzA by 3 March 2014 at the latest.

Source: Genehmigung Szenariorahmen 2013, press release BNetzA

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