TSOs 2016 EEG Surcharge Forecast: Trend 6.5 ct/kWh, Range 5.66 to 7.27 ct/kWh

Last Friday the four German transmission system operators (TSOs) presented their forecast for the 2016 EEG surcharge range. The current trend points towards 6.5 ct/kWh, with a likely range between 5.66 and 7.27 ct/kWh. The lower and the top end of this rather wide range are 0.51 ct/kWh less respectively 1.1 ct/kWh higher than the EEG surcharge of 6.17 ct/kWh for 2015. The TSOs also published the 5-year medium term forecast on renewable power (Mittelfristprognose), providing information on expected installed capacity, renewable power input into the grids, payments made to operators in accordance with the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and sales to final consumers (Letztverbraucherabsatz).

By the end of 2019 the TSOs expect renewable power plant capacity to reach 112.54 GW, with 91 % coming from solar and wind power (solar power just under 47 GW, wind power roughly 56 GW). Output (Jahresarbeit) is believed to be over 208 TWh in 2019:

Year Total GWh
2015 160,895
2016 174,075
2017 187,792
2018 199,417
2019 208,316

The split between different sources of renewable energy is expected to develop as follows (in GWh):

Year Hydro Gas Biomass Geothermal Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Solar
2015 6,281 1,694 38,363 159 67,061 11,231 36,106
2016 6,477 1,654 39,752 194 73,558 14,510 37,931
2017 6,641 1,619 40,689 228 78,685 20,178 39,752
2018 6,830 1,587 41,687 266 83,486 23,839 41,723
2019 7,022 1,565 42,648 298 88,304 24,728 43,751

Average payments to operators are expected to develop as follows (in EUR/MWh)

Year Average Hydo Gas Biomass Geothermal Wind Onshore Solar
2015 244.90 101.14 71.04 205.63 240.49 91.19 328.38
2016 241.91 101.38 70.91 204.38 240.48 91.15 323.16
2017 242.77 101.56 70.78 203.56 240.49 91.18 318.12
2018 242.21 101.72 70.67 202.83 240.49 91.19 313.24
2019 241.66 101.84 70.56 202.10 240.49 91.20 308.56

Full load hours are expected to also change over time:

Year Hydro Gas Biomass Geothermal Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Solar
2015 4,106 3,056 5,914 4,301 1,762 4,187 893
2016 4,127 3,029 5,933 4,345 1,791 4,212 891
2017 4,118 3,004 5,918 4,360 1,801 4,200 886
2018 4,125 2,980 5,920 4,379 1,814 4,202 883
2019 4,132 2,967 5,922 4,416 1,826 4,207 880

The TSOs expect EEG payments to operators to increase from EUR 22,963 million in 2015 to EUR 27,759 million in 2019:

Year Million EUR
2015 22,963
2016 24,302
2017 25,961
2018 27,213
2019 27,759

With the EEG surcharge (EEG-Umlage), consumers pay for costs incurred in the EEG support scheme, in particular market premiums for directly marketed renewable energy as well as the difference between fixed feed-in tariffs paid pursuant to the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) for renewable energy fed into the grids and the sale of the renewable energy that is not directly marketed by the operators at the EPEX Spot power exchange by the TSOs. The complex system of the sale of the renewable energy by the TSOs and their compensation is laid down in AusglMechV and the corresponding AusglMechAV.

Section 3 paras. 3 and 4 AusglMechAV stipulate that by 15 November of each year the TSOs have to publish the forecast for the EEG surcharge for the year after next as well as a 5 year medium term forecast. They inter alia have to provide information concerning the predicted development of the installed capacity, full load hours, the annual amount of electricity fed into the grid and payments made to installation operators.

The forecasts were again made based on expert opinions by independent energy consulting agencies on behalf of the TSOs.

Source: www.netztransparenz.de

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