The EEG surcharge for 2016 will increase to 6.354 ct/kWh in 2016, up 3% from 6.17 this year. The grid operators expect to reallocate EUR 22.9 billion of EEG transfer payments, up 5% from last year’s 21.8 EUR billion. If you divide the expected EEG reallocation payments by the German population of 81.2 million, this means about EUR 280 per head.
As every year, the grid operators on 15 October presented their EEG surcharge calculation for the next year. For 2016, the TSOs expect a total deficit of EUR 23,066,697,556.61 (after EUR 21,066,261,049.17 last year) that needs to be reallocated. This is an increase of 9.5%.
The high surplus in the EEG surcharge account at the end of September 2015 of EUR 2,521,189,796.39 actually led to a reduction of the EEG surcharge for 2016, as the 2016 liquidity reserve target amount with EUR 2,331,052,228.11 is about EUR 190 million lower than the amount currently in the bank.
Those EUR 190 million somewhat mask a higher 7.6% increase in the core surcharge amount compared to 2015. The core surcharge covers the actual transfer payments for higher costs from renewable energy expected by the TSOs. The 2016 EEG surcharge consists of 6.407 ct/kWh core surcharge, plus 0.647 ct/kWh for the target liquidity reserve, minus 0.7 ct/kWh for the (unexpectedly high) current liquidity reserve in the EEG surcharge account. Compared to 2015 with 5.957 ct/kWh of core surcharge, 6.407 ct/kWh core surcharge for 2016 mean that the core surcharge increased by 7.6%.
For 2015, the EEG surcharge had been reduced to 6.17 ct/kWh from 6.24 ct/kWh in 2014. The increase for 2016 is lower than forecasted at the end of 2014, when a range between 6.5 to 7.27 ct/kWh appeared to be likely.
Out of the 2016 EEG surcharge of 6.354 ct/kWh, about 2.6 ct/kWh (2015: 2.7 ct/kWh) shall cover PV, 1.7 ct/kW/h (2015: 1.6 ct/kW) biomass, 2 ct/kWh (2015: 1.7 ct/kWh) wind. Total generation from renewables is expected to reach 176,427,020 MWh.
The calculated market price for electricity in 2016 is expected to be only 3.126 ct/kWh, after 3.567 ct/kWh. In comparision, the TSOs calculated with average EEG payments of 30.613 ct/kW for PV, 24.389 ct/kWh for geothermal, 18.657 ct/kWh for biomass, 18.362 ct/kWh for offshore wind, 9.156 ct/kWh for onshore wind and 9.402 for hydro.
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