BNetzA: Scenario Framework Approved for National Electricity 2019-2030

The Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) on 15 June 2018 approved the scenario framework for the National Electricity Grid Development Plan (NEP 2019-2030) submitted by the four German transmission system operators (TSO).

Amended in 2015, § 12 a EnWG stipulates that, starting with the 2017 version of the scenario framework, the TSOs no longer have to produce grid development plans every year, but a joint plan is to be produced on a biennial basis instead.  The scenario framework describes the expected development of the electricity generation capacity and the electricity consumption in the year 2030, using three different scenarios A, B, C.  A further Scenario B 2035 describes the expected development in 2035.  In contrast to the last scenario framework 2017-2030, not only four scenarios were approved, but also an additional intermediate scenario B 2025 with the target year 2025. It shall be used to check the ad hoc measures submitted by the TSOs to minimize grid expansion needs.

BNetzA approved the following Scenario Framework 2019-2030:

Installed Generation Capacity [GW]  
Energy Type Reference

2017

Scenario A2030 Scenario B2030 Scenario

C2030

Scenario

B 2025

Scenario

B 2035

Nuclear 9,5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Lignite 21.2 9.4 9.3 9.0 9.4 9.0
Hard Coal 25.0 13,5 9.8 8.1 13.5 8.1
Natural Gas 29.6 32.8 35.2 33.4 32.5 36.9
Oil 4.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.9
Pumped Storage 9,5 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.8
Other conventional Generations  4.3 4.1  4.1 4.1  4.1 4.1
Spare Capacity 0.0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0
Total Conventional Generation 103.5 74.7 73.2 69.1 74.4 72.8
Wind Onshore 50.5 74.3 81.5 85.5 70.5 90.8
Wind Offshore 5.4 20.0 17.0 17.0 10.8 23.2
Photovoltaic 42.4 72.9 91.3 104.5 73.3 97.4
Biomass 7.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.3 4.6
Hydro 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
Other Renewable Generation 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Total Renewable Generation 112.8 180.1 202.7 219.9 168.8 222.9
Total Generation 216.3 254.8 275.9 289.0 243.2 295.7
Net Electricity Consumption [TWh]
Net Electricity Consumption 530.1 512.3 543.9 576.5 528.4 549.4
Drivers of sector interconnection [Quantity in mio.]
Household Heat pumps 0.7 1.1 2.6 4.1 1.7 2.9
E-Mobility 0.1 1.0 6.0 10.0 2.0 8.0
Flexibility Options and Storages [GW]
Power to Gas 1.0 2.0 3.0 0.5 3.0
PV-Battery Storage 0.3 6.5 8.0 10.1 3.2 12.3
Large Battery Storage 0.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 1.2 3.4
DSM (Industry and commerce, trade, services sectors) 1.5 2.0 4.0 6.0 3.0 5.0
Market Modeling
Co2 standard for market modeling Max. 184 Max. 184 Max. 184 Max. 240 Max.127

Renewable Energies

In the new scenario framework 2019, the scenarios have changed significantly compared to the last scenario framework 2017, because of the new specifications of the coalition agreement of 12 March 2018.

The expansion of renewable energies in the 2019-2030 scenario framework is closely aligned with the goal of the coalition agreement of 12 March 2018 to cover 65% of future gross consumption through renewable energy generation.  Special invitations to tender for onshore wind energy and photovoltaic as well as higher offshore wind energy quantities are also part of the new scenario framework.  The goal of 65 percent of renewable energy in gross electricity consumption by 2030 is included in all scenarios, but is achieved through different expansion paths of renewable energies.  Thus, the 2030 scenarios go far beyond the concrete development paths of the current § 4 EEG.  However, it can be assumed that the expansion paths and the tender volumes for renewable energies will be adjusted (upwards, if the past is any indication) in future EGG amendments.

Conventional Energies

Contrary to the assumptions of the transmission system operators and the assumptions in the scenario framework 2017-2030, the Federal Network Agency reduced the technical-economic operating life of lignite and hard coal fired power plants by 5 years in all scenarios.  The technical-economic operating life of lignite and hard coal fired power plants is thus 45 years in scenario A 2030, in scenario B 2025, scenario B 2030 and scenario B 2035 40 years and in scenario C 2030 35 years.  The scenario framework emphasis that this is not a statement on the actual life of coal-fired power plants or the currently discussed “coal exit”.

Further Changes of the Scenario Framework 2019

In contrast to the last scenario framework, the Scenario Framework 2019 is less complex.  But it focuses on new topics such as

  • influences of new power applications, i.e. electro mobility and heat pumps, on the future power consumption
  • flexibility options and storage options
  • linking the electricity sector to other sectors, such as the transport or heating sectors.

Further Steps

Based on the approved scenario framework, the TSOs now have to draw up the Network Development Plan 2019-2030 (NEP), which will define the measures and steps for an optimisation, enhancement and expansion of the on- and offshore grids, which in the opinion of the TSOs are needed to ensure a safe and reliable operation of the grids.  Thereby the TSOs are required to present new and innovative technical approaches to network resources and their operation.  Their suitability for increasing the transport capacity and the best possible use of the existing network must also be assessed by the transmission system operators.

A draft consulted NEP 2019-2030 has to be submitted to BNetzA by 15 April 2019.

Sources:

BNetzA’s press release, Netzausbau.de, Approved Scenario Framework 2019 – 2030

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